2026 AEP by the Numbers: Growth Slows, the Market Reshuffles
Every year, CMS enrollment data gives us a fresh read on where the Medicare Advantage market stands — and this year’s numbers tell a story worth paying attention to. With both January and February 2026 data now available, we have our first real look at how health plans performed during this AEP. The short version: growth is still happening, but the landscape is shifting in some significant ways.
Total MA enrollment now sits at 35.57 million beneficiaries — a gain of over a million net new members since last February. But that headline number masks a lot of nuances. Growth has decelerated for the fourth consecutive year, the carrier winner/loser gap is wider than ever, and some plan types are surging while others are quietly contracting.
We’ve packaged the key data into an interactive graphic that walks through enrollment trends, market share shifts, plan type breakdowns, and what it all means for health plan marketers.
Scroll through the full breakdown below.
2026 AEP By the Numbers
Growth Slows, the Market Reshuffles
beneficiaries enrolled as of February 2026
Growth Is Slowing — the “Great MA Migration” Is Over
MA now covers 51.81% of all Medicare beneficiaries — but the story is in the margins. Original Medicare Only penetration was essentially flat (–0.03 pp) and Medicare Supplement declined only modestly (–0.35 pp). With so little movement from non-MA to MA switchers, the data points to new entrants to the Medicare market as the primary engine of MA growth.
CSNPs Surge +48.64%
Chronic Condition Special Needs Plans posted the highest growth rate of any MA segment this AEP — though it’s important to note they still represent just 2.4% of total MA enrollment. DSNPs and ISNPs also outpaced the overall market.
AEP Growth by Plan Type
Share of Total MA Enrollment
Top Winners & Losers
Humana dominated this AEP with over one million net new members — the largest gain of any carrier. On the other end of the spectrum, UnitedHealthcare saw the most significant losses. The results reflect a notable redistribution of membership across the market.
Medicare Advantage Leaders
The top five MA carriers by current market share — and how their positions shifted coming out of this AEP.
as of Feb ’26
Regional Plans & Payviders Outpace Nationals
Regional plans grew at 7.24% while national carriers managed just 1.17%. Among regional plans, the Top 20 payviders by MA membership grew at 11.19% — suggesting that the trust equity of a health system brand may provide an advantage in today’s market.
Growth Trend Over Time
$0 Premium Plans Now Account for 77.72% of Enrollment
The dominance of $0 premium plans continues to grow, reaching a new high in 2026. Meanwhile, the share of members in mid-range premium tiers ($26–$50) has steadily declined from its 2023 peak.
HMO Share Ticks Up — But Not by Choice
HMO enrollment share reversed its downward trend in 2026, but this likely reflects supply rather than demand. With many health plans terminating PPO products over the past two years, beneficiaries are being funneled into HMO options — not actively choosing them.
Key Takeaways for Health Plan Marketers
Six key insights from the 2026 MA enrollment data to inform your marketing strategy.
Growth Is Slowing
MA growth continues to decelerate for the fourth consecutive year. For recommendations on how to compete in this shifting landscape, read our recent post: Medicare Advantage Is Changing — And So Must the Marketing
New Entrants Are the Growth Engine
With OMO and Med Supp penetration barely moving, MA growth appears primarily driven by new entrants to the Medicare market — both age-ins and late retirees enrolling for the first time.
SNPs Are Outpacing the Market
CSNPs grew 48.64% and DSNPs and ISNPs also outpaced overall MA growth — though SNPs still represent a relatively small share of total enrollment.
Brand Trust May Matter
The Top 20 payviders grew at 11.19% — suggesting that health system brand equity may provide an advantage, though more data is needed to draw definitive conclusions.
$0 Premiums Keep Winning
The share of members enrolled in $0 premium plans continues to grow. Price sensitivity is intensifying — plans must compete aggressively on value.
HMO Share Is Rising — But Not by Choice
HMO enrollment ticked upward in 2026, but this likely reflects plan terminations rather than consumer preference. With many PPO plans exiting the market over the past two years, beneficiaries are being funneled into HMO options by default.
Want to talk through what these trends mean for your plan’s Medicare marketing strategy? Contact Media Logic for more information.
